The Greater Albuquerque Association of Realtors has made its Home Sales Report available for the month of October, 2008.

The report shows that the Albuquerque Area continues to see market conditions that favor home Buyers. Listing inventory remains close to 6,000 listings. This is approximatly where it has been for most of the year.

In October 1,411 new detached residential listings hit the market. This is down 6% from last month, following a similar trend for the last 3 years. 1,086 homes Closed. This is down from last month, but the decrease is not unusual given the time of year.

Pending Sales in Albuquerque are virtually unchanged from last October, going from 406 to 402. Pending Sales in Rio Rancho went up 2% from last year at this time.

The median price for detached homes has gone up since last month. The highest increase was in condo and townhome sales with an 18% increase in the Median Sales Price from last month.

Sellers can expect to sell their single-family homes in approximatly 72 days and condos/townhomes typically sell within 53 days. The days on market for home sales in October went down from last month.

The full report is available HERE.

Labels: Albuquerque, Market Stats

Online home-value sites offer some useful tools, but their estimates are often wrong.

"The percentage of error on these estimates is still very large," says Delores Conway, director of the Casden Forecast at the University of Southern California Lusk Center for Real Estate. If there are not many comparable sales in one area, for example, she says, "the estimates will have huge errors in them."

Zillow.com and Cyberhomes.com rely on computer-generated automated models to estimate values. The models help compensate for the fact that many neighborhoods don’t have enough sales to generate accurate values based on experience.

But these computer models don’t reflect home condition, improvements and may not even accurately convey property descriptions.

Marty Frame, general manager of Cyberhomes.com, says the data on the site is best used as a way to form an overall impression of a neighborhood.

"Our goal is to provide you all this information and let you cherry-pick the things that are most interesting to you," Frame says. "You're going to look at an estimate and say, "that makes sense' or 'that doesn't make any sense."'

From my observation, the error in valuations seems to be especially high in New Mexico and particularly Santa Fe. I attribute this to two factors. First, New Mexico is a non-disclosure state. This means that the sales price of a property does not become a matter of public record. Secondly, in Santa Fe, the idea of a tract home is very rare. Most homes in Santa Fe are custom or semi-custom making a generalized appraisal by a computer subject to a high degree of error. If you would like an estimate of the value of your home, please feel free to call me at 505-670-5604. I'd be happy to provide this information to you free of charge.

The Associated Press (06/23/2008), contributed to this post.

Labels: Finance, Market Stats, Santa Fe

Analysts from the PMI Group, the company that provides private mortgage insurance, have issued its the Spring 2008 Risk Index. According to the findings, analysts are betting that prices in both Santa Fe and Albuquerque have a less than 1% chance of being lower two years from now.

At the same time, PMI says that 13 of the nation's top housing markets have more than a 60 percent likelihood of home price declines.

The cities with the biggest price risks are in California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona, and in most cases are already experiencing sharp home price declines.

"Excess supply is responsible for much of the risk we're seeing in the market," David W. Berson, PMI's chief economist and strategist, said in Thursday's report.

"The excess supply of housing in the United States is 9.2 months for existing homes (the 20-year average has been six) and 9.8 months for new homes (the 20-year average has been 5.5), which will continue to depress prices."

Additionally, the report stated that in the 4th Quarter of 2007 Home Values GREW by 4.07% in Santa Fe. This compares to an increase of 9.32% in Q4 2006, a difference of 4.34. In Albuquerque, home values grew by 4.66% in Q4 2007 compared to an increase of 14.45% in Q4 2006.

So, How risky is the Housing Market? The following information shows the markets with the most and least risk of a home price decline, based on price appreciation, economic growth and affordability according to PMI Group's spring risk index. An index of 100 means there is a 100 percent chance of home prices falling in the next two years. This list is represents the top 50 metro areas in the US. A full list with 381 markets can be found here:

http://www.pmi-us.com/media/pdf/products_services/eret/pmi_eretappndx_08v2.pdf

MOST RISKY
Riverside, Calif	93
Las Vegas	91
Orlando	85
Ft. Lauderdale	84
Phoenix	84
LEAST RISKY
Fort Worth	Less than 1
Pittsburgh	Less than 1
Dallas	Less than 1
Houston	Less than 1
Indianapolis	Less than 1
SOURCE: PMI Group

Labels: Albuquerque, Market Stats, Santa Fe